May 3, Monday

HOME SCENE

A team of political scientists and sociologists discuss the impact of last month's events on political life. A headline draws attention to one of the points at issue: "Police Operations Do Not Go with Reforms." No doubt the Interior Ministry's operations have strong effect on public attitudes within this country despite the director-like leanings to spectacularity at the expense of basic human rights. Despite the positive role of police operations, they amount to a triple replacement. Firstly, the Interior Ministry's operations do not go with reforms. Secondly, expectations for justice and nemesis are reduced to arrests and not convictions. Thirdly, focusing spotlights on the operations leaves oligarchs in the shadow. Theconcept of justice is limited to punishing corruption.
The "Troud" group for analysis comments on the condition of the parties which are not in power. The Bulgarian Socialist party (BSP) has not found a suitable springboard for regaining public confidence yet. The Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF) sticks to its waiting game, while the incumbents seem to be still undecided about their attitude to the MRF. Ataka is trying to turn its support for GERB into one without alternative and for that reason the party attacks all possible rivals. The offensive against the Blue Coalition is increasing; the impressive political behaviour of its representatives undoubtedly brings it public dividends. The position of part of the European right wing is that Bulgaria needs a coalition of GERB, the Union of Democratic Forces (UDF) and Democrats for Strong Bulgaria (both in the Blue Coalition) which does not allow the incumbents to distance themselves categorically from these two parties.

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The incumbents still enjoyed a high confidence rating in April, shows a survey conducted by Gallup International which is commented on in "Klassa." If parliamentary elections were held now, GERB would win them again. However, most respondents disapprove of holding early elections in the coming months. GERB and Prime Minister Boyko Borissov boast high confidence ratings, 47 and 55 per cent respectively. In general, public assessments of the individual spheres of government are negative; "We do not see any improvement," a lot of respondents said. At the same time, the confidence rating of the government is unchanged, 45 per cent.

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"Novinar" writes on its front page that if a no-confidence motion is tabled against the government, GERB will boycott the vote. On Sunday PM Borissov warned that in this case the GERB parliamentary group would walk out of parliament. Borissov let it be understood that he is not afraid of the Socialists' demand for resignation of the cabinet. "If you do not like our government, move for a no-confidence vote. Then I'll have GERB to walk out of Parliament and I'll just watch the fun. Let them explain to the people after that that they are in a political crisis," Borissov is quoted as saying. In his view, at the moment the Socialists are utterly helpless.

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Yulii Pavlov of the Centre for Analysis and Marketing says in "24 Chassa" that Interior Minister Tsvetan Tsvetanov is particularly suitable for a presidential candidate. When the question is about well-known politicians, it is not reasonable for those with low confidence rating or those who are largely mistrusted by the public to run as candidates for the position of Bulgaria's president. That is why Tsvetanov would be a particularly suitable nomination as he is one of the only two politicians with a positive confidence-mistrust ratio (56:38 per cent). According to Pavlov, Tsvetanov is really the most logical presidential candidate and it is enough for him not to make blunders which could affect adversely the confidence rating he enjoys. Furthermore, if Tsvetanov takes over as head of state, there will be no reason for speculations about possible rivalry between him and Boyko Borissov in the party and the government, Pavlov says.

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"I expect an honest debate on the special courts," Justice Minister Margarita Popova says in an interview for "Troud." She backs the idea about specialization of the justice system units. In addition to organized crime courts, there should be juvenile courts as well, she says. The debate is necessary because some judges are reluctant about the establishment of special court panels within the existing system of justice. "I hope that the debate will be professional and goodwilled," Popova says.

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An interview with Prosecutor General Boris Velchev who admits that the clearance rate of bribery crimes is low. In his words, the statistics show good results in fighting organized crime (335 persons brought to trial) and money laundering (35 persons convicted). However, the number of trials on charges of corruption has dropped because many of the crimes involving bribery are not cleared. In his view, "the statistics on curbing graft will look unconvincing until we believe that only police and the prosecution should fight corruption."

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"Troud" reports that on September 6 Yani Yanev's Order, Lawfulness, Justice party (OLJ) will launch a sign-in campaign on the holding of a referendum on the early dissolution of Parliament for the purpose of convening a Grand National Assembly and changing the effective Constitution. The constitutional amendments which the OLJ proposes include reducing the number of MPs from 240 to 100, giving voters the right to recall MPs and waiving the immunity of MPs and judges.

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"Troud" carries a commentary which says that the BSP should conduct a constructive, cathartic, reviving election campaign from the grassroots up " separating grain from chaff." It needs a policy different from social liberalism. If [BSP leader] Sergei Stanishev wants and can do it, he should embark on this path and get rid of those who want to take from the party and not to give it. "Business and politics are different things. Now many party leaders have the souls of profiteers, their language is not Socialist and they have no hearts. The BSP's main problem is a moral one."

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No one of the institutes with the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences (BAC) will be closed down or merged but the BAC governing body will be replaced, "Troud" writes. The incumbents have developed a plan for the rehabilitation of the academy and the Education, Youth and Science Ministry is expected to unveil it shortly. All immovable property handled and managed by the BAC will be public state property; building anything on it save for scientific infrastructure will be banned. The BAC general administration will be closed.

ECONOMY

"I do not want the ministers to like me - they get paid for the job they do," PM Borissov says in an interview for "24 Chassa." "I am against rasing VAT. It is my understanding that during our term in office it should drop below 20 per cent. The question is whether it should be increased as a short-term measure." The administration is under stress and "nobody dare sign it lest they make a mistake." "I would be really happy if this is so. Because the first and most important anti-crisis effect we have been looking for is this. What does it mean to be afraid to initial something lest they find themselves behind bars? This means that until now they used to sign things allowing them to squander money from the public purse or the municipal funds, some business circles benefited from it and the country sank deeper and deeper. Of course, you put your initials only to what you are sure is lawful."

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Producers and economists predict in "24 Chassa" that increasing VAT will push up inflation from 2 to over 5 per cent and prices will be marked up. Economist Peter Ganev explains that everyone in Bulgaria will have to pay for more expensive goods to fill the Treasury and finance government expenditures. "Is it worth it? I think it is not," Ganev says. Bulgarian Chamber of Commerce and Industry President Tsvetan Simeonov observes that the frequent change in the intentions for tax policy reforms is not a good signal for local businesses and potential investors. Financier Emil Hursev says that inflation may reach 6.5 per cent. Luchezar Bogdanov of Industry Watch says that if VAT is increased by 2 or 4 per cent, prices will go up by 1.3 or 2.8 per cent respectively. Nikolai Vassilev of Expat Capital, a financial services company, expects that if VAT is raised to 24 per cent, tax non-compliance will amount to some 400 million leva due to tax evading.
Resistance to increasing VAT is growing, "Sega" notes. On Sunday the Confederation of Employers and Industrialists issued a declaration saying that an increase of VAT will guillotine the business now that the first signs of economic recovery can be seen. The National Association of the Bulgarian Business suggests to reform the banking system and curb private enforcement agents.

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It emerges from a "Standart News" interview with National Social Insurance Institute Director Hristina Mitreva that the allocation of a larger resource for pensions would lead to underfinancing other sectors, that is why improving pensions by 5 per cent as of July 1 is rather not likely. In her words, now the most important thing is to stabilize the budget. Increasing public-sector wages is also not possible. Mitreva says that one of her Ministry's ideas about reforms is the elimination of the points-based pension scheme. Most probably, a longer length of service and a minimum age will be required allowing greater flexibility for people's retirement.

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"We will not be able to do without loans," "Troud" writes quoting Podkrepa Labour Confederation Konstantin Trenchev. "The government will get to a point when they will have to look for money on the international market. That is why it is better not to talk about raising taxes - they will not achieve better tax compliance. And will have to take a loan in any case," Trenchev said on Sunday. In his view, a loan of 4-5,000 million leva would be enough to get the economy moving, to strengthen the State and prevent thefts. Consumption is contracting at the moment and it is killing the economy, Trenchev said.


/BTA/