April 21, Wednesday

THE HOME SCENE

"GERB is holding all the trumps," Yulii Pavlov told "Troud,"
commenting on a survey conducted by his Centre for Analysis and
Marketing. In October 2009, 31 per cent of respondents were
optimistic about the country's future and 19 per cent were
pessimistic. Now the ratio has reversed: 18 per cent are
optimists and 42 per cent are pessimists. The only politicians
with a positive rating are Prime Minister Boyko Borissov (57.6
per cent) and Deputy Prime Minister and Interior Minister
Tsvetan Tsvetanov (56.4 per cent). Confidence in the Prime
Minister and in the GERB Party is the biggest asset of the
incumbent government. Forty-seven per cent of those polled
believe that the present Cabinet should not be changed. Another
22 per cent favour the replacement of individual ministers. GERB
is the political force that stands to gain most from early
elections, which would give it an absolute majority in
Parliament. "In reality, GERB is holding all the trumps. The
rest of the parties which voted for this Government must be
clear that not backing the power-holders and precipitating a
snap election would be a self-defeating move," Pavlov says.

Another poll, conducted by AFIS and covered in "Sega", found
that confidence in GERB has dived by 18 per cent in the nine
months since the party came to power, while the personal
approval rating of Prime Minister Boyko Borissov is improving.
"GERB is on the downward slide and all institutions are propped
up by Boyko Borissov," Yurii Aslanov of AFIS comments.
Confidence in all political parties has ebbed, albeit to a
different extent.

* * *

"Standart News" quotes Prime Minister Boyko Borissov as saying
that he would replace his ministers and deputy ministers every
two or three months if he had to as long as they become subject
of criminal prosecution. The PM added that Bugaria's pool of
human resources is limited and that everyone that has been at
various levels of power is "tainted" in some way and decent
people are not easy to find. He argued that the former
government must be held responsible for what they have done
because "a scam crops up in whatever area you poke."

* * *

"24 Chassa" reports that the members of the Supreme Judicial
Council (SJC) refused to submit to checks by the State Agency
for National Security for classified information access
clearance, claiming that they already have such a clearance.
Last Thursday Interior Minister Tsvetan Tsvetanov said such
background investigation was needed so as to restore confidence
in the SJC and dispel doubts of organized crime influence on the
magistracy. "Even though we are now engaged in personnel
management and not in the administration of justice, we were
until recently judges, prosecutors, investigating magistrates
and lawyers and in this capacity, by virtue of the law, remain
entitled to read classified materials without a check," the
Council writes in a position circulated on Tuesday. The SJC
members warn that "the executive may establish control over the
judiciary through the clearance investigations."

* * *

"Troud" reports that historians and everybody else curious to
see documents on Bulgaria's pre-communist history will be free
to access a record of Todor Zhivkov's confessions when he was
detained by police in 1934, the case records of the
investigation and trial of Nikola Vaptsarov and cases of the
People's Court and the rest of the Interior Ministry's archives.
Interior Minister Tsvetan Tsvetanov, Archives State Agency
Chairman Georgi Bakalov and Commission Disclosing Records and
Announcing Bulgarian Citizens' Affiliation to State Security and
the Intelligence Services of the Bulgarian People's Army
Chairman Evtim Kostadinov Tuesday signed a memorandum on the
transfer of the documents.

ECONOMY

In case the rest of the anti-crisis measures fail, value added
tax will be increased even though the idea was rejected by the
National Council for Tripartite Cooperation upon the adoption of
the 60-item package, it emerged from a bTV interview with Prime
Minister Boyko Borissov, "24 Chassa" writes. "In any case the
raising of VAT is a powerful but very extreme instrument to
boost budget revenues," Bulgarian Industrial Association
President Bozhidar Danev commented. "If you raise VAT by 2 per
cent, the economy will sink by 2 per cent," economist Ventsilsav
Dimitrov warns. This will happen because consumption, which is
already down, will contract by 2 per cent. According to United
People's Party Chair Maria Cappone, the anti-crisis measures are
impotent and, worse yet, provide an excuse for a subsequent
increase of VAT most probably to 24 or 25 per cent. She expects
this to happen around June 1.

"GERB spoke about reforms in both its election manifesto and in
its government programme. Society, however, is not happy with
the pace. Reforms, though, are difficult and require consensus.
The process is delayed in search for concord," National Assembly
Budget Committee Chair Menda Stoyanova, MP of GERB, says in a
"Troud" interview. Stoyanova says she opposes a VAT increase but
if 1,600 million leva prove too little to plug the budget gap,
if they cannot be raised or if the gap proves much larger,
options to increase revenue may have to be sought. "The easiest,
fastest and fairest way will be to raise VAT. But delaying this
step gives us a slight chance of not having to take it,"
Stoyanova adds.

"The Government will not be able to use for ever the three-party
coalition as a scapegoat," Movement for Rights and Freedoms
Deputy Chairman Aliosman Imamov says in a "Sega" interview. He
describes the Government's anti-crisis measures as "a
disorganized mixture of corporate and trade-union grievances."
"There should be a clearly defined goal of economic development.
There is no such thing now, the measures are eclectic. The goal
should be recovery of the Bulgarian economy. If the economy
starts to move faster, the fiscal problems will be solved
automatically because budget revenues will increase," he
reasons.

The Blue Coalition Co-chairman Martin Dimitrov suggests in
"Novinar" that "GERB should take our economic programme and use
it." He notes that the Government was not prepared for such a
difficult situation, which is why it has not yet taken resolute
measures. "The 60 measures that were made public will do a
minimum job and will not be fully effective. Now is the time to
take adequate measures that will get the system under control.
All administrations must be analyzed and the needless structures
must be scrapped. This is the Achiles's heel of the government
policy, through which millions of leva go down the drain. The
other black hole is the ineffective control system," Dimitrov
notes.

"Prime Minister Boyko Borissov may receive a Nobel Prize for
economics for his discovery that arrests are the best
anti-crisis measure," Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) leader
Sergei Stanishev said on Tuesday. "With this policy, the
Government will crash at 200 kilometres per hour into a concrete
wall, but the State and the people will crash with them, too,"
he added, urging the Government to report back on the
implementation of the anti-crisis plan approved in the autumn.
"There is no new anti-crisis plan, there is just talk about it,"
the BSP leader argued.

"Troud" quotes Regional and Public Works Minister Rosen
Plevneliev as telling a news conference on Tuesday that his
Ministry will need a total of 28 years to pay up all contracts
signed by the previous government without available financing.
Plevneliev estimates that his Ministry now owes 280 million leva
on such contracts. At the same time, the Ministry's entire
budget for capital construction in 2010 is 10 million leva.

"In Sofia despite the crisis things are making wonderful
progress. I hope for a stabilization in the country, so that
people's purchasing power would increase and they would be able
to shop and not just window-shop," Prime Minister Boyko Borissov
said after cutting the ribbon of The Mall, Sofia's newest
shopping and entertainment complex, "Troud" reports. With its
185 shops and 66,000 sq m selling area, The Mall claims to be
"the largest in Bulgaria".

"Troud" writes that the International Fair Plovdiv posted a 10.1
million leva profit for 2008, nearly treble the 2005 figure.
Also in 2008, the Fair invested 16.1 million leva, by 12.3
million leva more than the company undertook according to its
strategy. The figures are cited in an official position of the
Fair's management, prompted by a recent statement by Economy,
Energy and Tourism Minister Traicho Traikov that the Government
will claim back a 97 per cent majority interest in the company.
"The attacks against me are horrible," businessman Georgi Gergov
says in a "Troud" interview. Traikov is suing him for recovery
of the State's majority stake in International Fair Plovdiv.
Gergov asks who wants to ruin a company of worldwide renown.
"The Plovdiv Fair is a mirror of the State and of the Bulgarian
economy. When it is the target of incessant accusations, they
affect the State as well," he argues.

"For a fourth year now, there has been much fuss as to whether
Georgi Gergov is a good or bad businessman, after he proved to
be the de facto owner of a state-owned company that had never
been privatized," "Pari" comments. "How did he contrive to take
over the state-owned majority interest and to pocket an entire
fair? He was investigated by the State Agency for National
Security and by the National Revenue Agency and by the
prosecution office. None, however, has come up with a
categorical conclusion. The Economy Minister, though, took the
plunge and decided to take Gergov to court. But if the evidence
collected by his Ministry's checks prove inconclusive, the
Minister will simply help the legitimation of the scheme for
misappropriating state-owned assets that has drawn criticism so
far."
BTA